Don’t Date the Rate

“Marry the house, date the rate” has become one of the most repeated phrases in real estate over the last few years. It’s catchy, it’s optimistic, and in the right context, it can be helpful. But like most slogans, it oversimplifies a decision that deserves far more nuance. In practice, this mindset can create unrealistic expectations and, in some cases, real financial risk.

The core assumption behind “date the rate” is that refinancing is easy and inevitable. Buy now, refinance later, and everything will work itself out. The problem is that refinancing is never guaranteed. It is a privilege, not a right, and it depends on factors that may have nothing to do with where interest rates go.

Yes, it is likely that rates will trend lower over time. Markets move in cycles, and historically, periods of elevated rates are often followed by declines. But lower rates alone do not qualify someone for a refinance. Lenders still require stable income, sufficient equity, and strong credit. If any one of those changes, the door to refinancing can quietly close.

Consider a common scenario: someone buys a home stretching their budget, comforted by the belief that they’ll refinance in a year or two. Then life happens. A job loss, a career change, a reduction in income, or a move to self-employment can all make qualifying for a new loan far more difficult. Even something as simple as taking on more consumer debt or missing a few payments can lower a credit score enough to derail refinancing plans.

Equity matters too. If home values flatten or decline—even temporarily—borrowers may not have enough equity to refinance, especially if they used a low down payment. In that case, falling rates don’t help. You can’t refinance a loan you no longer qualify for.

That’s why a healthier mindset is this: buy a home you can comfortably afford at today’s rate, and treat refinancing as a bonus, not a necessity. The monthly payment should work within your budget even if rates never change. If rates fall and refinancing becomes an option, that’s a powerful upside. If not, your plan still holds.

“Don’t date the rate” isn’t about fear or pessimism. It’s about realism and responsibility. A home purchase should be resilient to life’s uncertainty. When you remove the assumption that refinancing will save the day, you make better decisions on price, payment, and risk.

The best buyers aren’t betting on lower rates to make the math work. They’re building a plan that works now—and gets even better if the future cooperates.